3 reasons why Cavalry FC will win the 2023 CPL Final

Cavalry FC take on rivals Forge FC this Saturday in the 2023 Canadian Premier League Final in Hamilton, where the Calgary-based club will be hoping to win a playoff championship for the first time in club history. If they can lift the North Star Cup, after already winning the regular season title a few weeks ago, they’ll complete a historic double and cement one of the great seasons in the CPL’s young history.

Those plucky foes from Hamilton, however, are standing in their way. But is this finally Cavalry’s year to beat Forge in the playoffs and win it all?

Here are three reasons why that might be the case.

1. In-form difference-makers

Cavalry were the only team to have two players nominated for Player of the Year, and for good reason. Ali Musse has been an absolute nightmare for opposing defenders to deal with this year, with 11 goal contributions (five goals, six assists), plus 46 chances created and 70 successful dribbles. He was outstanding in last Saturday’s semifinal, when he caused havoc in transition against Pacific FC and wound up with a goal and an assist for his troubles from set-piece situations (more on those in a minute).

If Forge somehow can stop Musse, they’ve also got to contend with a litany of other attacking threats. Sergio Camargo can be a menace in clutch situations, William Akio’s dribbling ability makes him eternally dangerous, and let’s not forget that Myer Bevan (joint-) won the Golden Boot this year. Teams have occasionally been able to expose Forge in transition this year, which might be one of Cavalry’s key routes to attack on Saturday, especially if the Hammers end up with more of the ball while playing at home.

Stopping Musse et al. is the first issue for Forge, but the second might be even tougher. Cavalry averaged fewer than one goal against per game in the regular season, and they conceded just 16 goals away from home. Defending is, of course, a team effort, but two names in particular make it particularly difficult to score against the Cavs. Daan Klomp, nominated for Player of the Year and Defender of the Year — not to mention a finalist for Players’ Player of the Year — has been perhaps the most dominant member of any backline in the CPL this year. His primary skillset is his distribution and composure on the ball, but it’s incredibly difficult to get past him as well, with Klomp finishing second in the CPL in blocks (17), aerial duels won (51), and possession won in the defensive third (87). He was the only outfield player in the league to play every single minute for his team, and in that time he was only dribbled past 13 times.

Even if Forge do find a way around Klomp, Marco Carducci will be waiting right behind him. Carducci, last year’s Golden Glove winner and a nominee for the award again this season, has been rock-solid and has found some excellent form the past few weeks, including a last-minute save against Pacific that secured Cavalry’s semifinal win.

In 31 games this year across all competitions, Cavalry have conceded more than one goal just six times. So, if they do manage to score first courtesy of Musse or another dynamic option up front, Forge will have their work cut out for them trying to overturn the deficit enough to win it in 90 minutes.

2. Set-piece wizardry

Foul Cavalry at your own peril, because there’s no team in the CPL more dangerous from a dead ball than Tommy Wheeldon Jr.’s. Or perhaps more accurately, as Wheeldon himself would point out, they’re Leon Hapgood and Daniel Hutchings’ team for set-pieces.

Those two members of Wheeldon’s coaching staff have rightly earned heaps of credit the past two years for how effective this team has been from free kicks and corners. In 2023, Cavalry rank first in the league from set-pieces in: shots (25), goal assists (10), successful deliveries into the box (50), and fouls won in the final third (109). That latter stat may raise an eyebrow or two, but such is also the nature of players like Musse, whose ability to get a step ahead of a defender lends itself to a late tackle quite often.

Cavalry have a litany of players who can curl a perfect free kick over or around a wall to score directly — Ali Musse, Sergio Camargo and Fraser Aird all come to mind — but those players are all equally adept at finding a teammate with a perfect delivery. Musse pinned one to the head of Daan Klomp in the semifinal last weekend, just as he’d done two weeks before in Cavalry’s last regular season game.

It’s not just power and placement, though. The Cavs have an extensive arsenal of creative set-piece plays they can call on at any time, as they did for their second goal in the semifinal against Pacific. That’s where Hapgood and Hutchings have really proven their brilliance.

In a one-off final that could very well come down to just one tiny detail — a missed mark on a set-piece, for instance — these set-pieces could make all the difference for Cavalry. Plus, one other kind of dead-ball situation? Myer Bevan took more penalties than anybody else in the league this year, and he scored all five of them.

3. Recent history breeds desire

There’s only one team that Cavalry lost more than once to in 2023, and that was Atlético Ottawa. Forge didn’t beat them at all in the regular season, before winning in that first-versus-second match two weeks ago.

It will be incredibly difficult for Forge to beat Cavalry twice in three weeks. Considering how familiar Bobby Smyrniotis and Tommy Wheeldon Jr. are with each other’s coaching styles by now, both managers might be looking for some minor tactical edge — like, for instance, how Wheeldon deployed Fraser Aird instead of Shamit Shome against Pacific last week.

Cavalry play with a chip on their shoulder when they’re trying to rebound from a loss — especially a loss to Forge — and there are few scarier sights in Canadian football than the Cavs when they have something to prove. They’ll be annoyed by the fact that this final isn’t in Calgary, by virtue of their own failure.

Expect the visitors to come out absolutely flying on Saturday. They know that Forge are vulnerable to conceding first at Tim Hortons Field — they allowed the first goal in a staggering nine out of 14 home games this year — and in cup final football sometimes the first goal is all it takes.

Conversely, Cavalry scored the first goal in 21 of their 28 regular season games this year — including 10 out of 14 away matches.

When it comes to the CPL Playoffs, Cavalry have often found themselves in Forge’s shadow. This year, they’ll be more motivated than ever to wipe away all those past frustrations and lift the North Star Cup.

For plenty of reasons, this certainly could be their year.