3 reasons why Forge FC will win the 2023 CPL Final

In the Canadian Premier League’s fifth season, Forge FC have reached their fifth consecutive final which they will host on Saturday, Oct. 28 at Tim Hortons Field.

The three-time CPL Playoff champs will now look to do something that they have stunningly never done: lift a trophy at home. Their lone loss to date in a CPL final came in the 2021 edition, where they fell 1-0 to Pacific FC in Hamilton.

Forge had a bit of a disappointing regular season, finishing in second place, 13 points behind Cavalry. They, however, took full advantage of that position in the league’s new playoff format, defeating Cavalry 2-1 at Spruce Meadows during the 1st vs. 2nd match to secure both a spot in the final, and the fact that it will be hosted at Tim Hortons Field.

Here are three reasons why Forge FC could win their fourth CPL Final.

1. History is on their side 

There can be no doubt at this point, the postseason is Forge season. With their 2-1 victory over Cavalry to open the 2023 playoffs, Forge have now played in 12 CPL postseason matches, winning nine of them, and losing just once. They have never allowed more than a single goal in a CPL playoff match, and have kept six clean sheets.

Four of those clean sheets have come in CPL Finals matches, including shutting out Cavalry in both legs of the 2019 final. The only player who has ever scored against Forge in a CPL final, Alessandro Hojabrpour, is now on their team and scored the winner for Forge in last year’s final, a 2-0 victory over Atlético Ottawa.

All of those playoff appearances bring with it a wealth of experience as well. Four Forge players have appeared in all four CPL finals: Triston Henry, Dom Samuel, Alex Achinioti-Jönsson and David Choinière. Captain Kyle Bekker and Tristan Borges, meanwhile, have played in three each.

Forge are also undefeated against Cavalry in playoff football, against whom they have picked up four wins and one draw. This includes, as aforementioned, beating them 1-0 in both legs of the 2019 Canadian Premier League final, which is the only other time the Cavs have reached the final.  Only two Cavalry players, Marco Carducci and Sergio Camargo, have played in a CPL final.

2. New players bring new ideas 

A big reason why Forge were so heavily favoured to repeat as CPL champions coming into this season was the fact that they started this year with 19 returning players from that side that won the 2022 playoff final in Ottawa.

On Saturday, however, it is two new faces to the 2023 team that could be difference makers, both in the way they have been deployed lately and their skillset: attacker Béni Badibanga and central defender Manjrekar James.

Replacing Daniel Krutzen, who captained Forge during the 2022 final, James has been a study presence at the back for the Hamilton side this season. He appeared in 26 of 28 matches, finishing third in the league in successful passes (1474), second in recoveries among outfield players (184) and third in aerial duels won (59), while winning an impressive 63.35 per cent of his 251 duels contested. In his first season in the CPL, he earned a nomination for the league’s Defender of the Year award.

Recent matches have also seen James step forward in possession and create further numbers and chances in midfield. In those positions, he has shown impressive ball control and creativity, which is something to watch for in the final.

Badibanga, meanwhile, has been a dynamic addition to the Forge attack since he joined the team in July. He was among the league leaders in expected assists per 90 minutes, with 0.33. He was also tied for the league lead in direct free-kick goals, having scored two in just 10 matches for Forge this season. Capable of playing centrally or out wide, his game-breaking ability and technical quality could be key for the hosts in the final.

3. Time to prepare, and time to heal 

Since winning the 1st vs. 2nd match in Calgary on October 14, Forge FC have been back at home in Hamilton, waiting to find out who they will play in their fifth consecutive final appearance. After initially taking a few days off, they had about a week to work on their own tactics and patterns before finding out their opponent.

Following this past Saturday, they now know that it will be Cavalry, and now can further tailor that tactical plan to an opponent they will face for the sixth time this season. If there is any club that can use that extra time to drill in a tactical master plan, it is Forge. It is also a significant improvement over the last time they hosted the final at Tim Hortons Field in 2021, when they had played a Concacaf League match against Motagua just four days prior in Honduras.

“Usually, I’m a guy who doesn’t like days off but I’ll take these two weeks as opposed to 2021 and 48 hours arriving back from Honduras to play Pacific,” said Forge FC head coach Bobby Smyrniotis after the win in Calgary.

Having those 14 days off at this time of year will also enable Forge to come into the 2023 final as healthy as possible. In particular, it will ideally give them time to nurse star striker Woobens Pacius back to health, after the 22-year-old missed the 1st vs. 2nd match through injury. Also of critical importance is the continued recovery of playoff game-breaker David Choinière, who had undergone surgery and missed ten straight matches before making a cameo of the bench. Pacius and Choinière are tied for most playoff goals in CPL history, with three each, so having this extra time to make them available in some capacity for the final could prove critical.