ANALYSIS: Gabrielle Carle looking to cap off breakout 2024 season for Washington Spirit with NWSL Championship win

Gabrielle Carle and the Washington Spirit can finish their remarkable 2024 campaign by lifting a trophy this weekend, as they take on the Orlando Pride in the NWSL Championship at CPKC Stadium in Kansas City on Saturday. 

After finishing second in the regular season table, the Spirit defeated 2-1 Bay FC in the quarter-finals, before downing Gotham FC on penalties in a spirited semi-final. 

Now, they’ll get a chance to finish the playoffs on a high note, as they take on the 2024 NWSL regular season champions, Orlando, who finished just four points ahead of the Spirit in the table, in the playoff final. 

There, it’ll be a great opportunity for Carle to win her first professional trophy, marking a perfect end to a breakout second season in the NWSL for her with the Spirit. After coming to the NWSL with the Spirit in 2023 and making 24 appearances on a side that missed out on the playoffs, Carle and her club have taken a big step forward in 2024, allowing them to get to this point.  

While Carle’s looking for that first professional trophy, however, it’s worth noting she’s got experience when it comes to winning - she is a two-time NCAA champion from her time with the Florida State Seminoles, and she was also part of the CanWNT team that won the Olympic gold medal in 2021. 

Because of that, she’ll now look to take that experience into this final, where she hopes to play a big role.

A key part of this Spirit team this year, she’s featured in all 28 games they’ve played across the regular season and playoffs, playing 2211 out of a possible 2520 minutes. There, she was deployed in multiple positions across the Spirit’s backline, including at both full back positions and at centre back, finishing with two assists despite all of that positional movement.  

Yet, that’s a credit to the work she’s put in, as she’s made herself a key part of head coach Jonatan Giráldez’s team since the two-time Champions League winner arrived midseason from Barcelona. Given his pedigree, one could wonder how she’d fit into his system, and it turns out the answer would be quite seamlessly.

And when looking at her numbers from this year, one can see why that’s been the case. Through her strong passing ability, she’s a key part of Washington’s build-up play and is also a key 1v1 defender who handles a lot of tough 1v1 matchups. 

For a Washington side that likes to take good defence and then quickly turn it into offence, that’s made her a key piece, as she and fellow full back Casey Krueger are often tasked with handling tough defensive assignments before pushing the ball forward. 

As a result, when comparing Carle to other full backs in the NWSL, those attributes immediately stand out, as well. 

First, in terms of her passing and ball progression, she’s in the 85th percentile when it comes to xAG with 0.12 per 90 minutes, 75th percentile in assists with 0.09/90, 84th percentile in npxG+xA with 0.15/90, 71st percentile in progressive carries with 2.18/90, 75th percentile in progressive passes with 4.85/90, 86th percentile in key passes with 1.20/90, 86th percentile in passes into the box with 1.20/90, 84th percentile in carries into the final third with 1.38/90 and in the 86th percentile in shot-creating actions with 2.58/90. 

Then, defensively, she’s in the 82nd percentile in tackles won with 1.87/90, and is in the 92nd percentile in tackles in the middle third and 86th percentile in tackles in the final third.

Overall, she’s done everything one would want out of a full back, as she can both pass and carry the ball forward into the dangerous areas, but is also a reliable 1v1 defender not afraid of getting stuck into a tackle.  

Because of that, it feels like she could play a big role in the final. Left on the bench in the semi-final, as she instead came onto the pitch as a substitute, one can wonder if she slots back in as a starter to help deal with Orlando’s lethal attack, as Gotham didn’t have the same firepower for the Spirit to worry about (they scored the fewest goals and had the fewest xG of the top four teams in the NWSL). 

Against an Orlando side that was tied for second in goals and second in xG, and is loaded with attacking talents such as Barbra Banda, Marta, Adriana and Ally Watt, Washington will need to be wary, and that’s where Carle could slot in. 

From there, she’ll also be tasked with a big role in possession, as Washington will also need to find a way to break down an Orlando side that conceded a league-low 20 goals in the regular season. They’ve slipped up a bit in the playoffs, conceding three goals in two games, but even that isn’t a huge dip by their standards. 

As a result, Carle could help out in that regard, especially for a Washington side that has dangerous forwards, but attackers that need service to thrive, something they’ve struggled to get since the injury to playmaker Croix Bethune. Given that Washington has scored one or fewer goals five times in their past 11 games after Bethune’s injury, something they only did five times in their previous 17 games, they know they need to get their front four of Ashley Hatch, Trinity Rodman, Leicy Santos and Rosemonde Kouassi the ball more often if they’re to avoid scoring just one goal or less once again. 

Gabrielle Carle marked her return from the Olympics in NWSL action today, earning an assist off the bench in a huge 4-1 Washington Spirit win over the KC Current

Great ball from Carle for her 2nd assist of 2024

Strong year continues#CanWNT/#CanXNT
pic.twitter.com/TtZfnPaTzT

— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) August 25, 2024

Carle can aid in that process, so look for her ball progression to be key in this final, as she can certainly help fill that gap that Bethune's absence has brought. 

Despite this breakout season at club level, however, Carle’s been unable to turn it into more of a role for the Canadian National Team, as she’s struggled to lock down a long-term starter role. Plus, she’s found it challenging to break into Canada’s squads for major tournaments - once again, she was left out of the Canadian squad for the Olympics this summer only to make it in after a last-minute injury, something that also happened at the 2023 World Cup, which was a surprise given her form this season.

With a changing of the guard happening on the Canadian team, however, both on the field with the retirement of some longtime veterans, and off the field with the team now moving on from Bev Priestman, it feels like Carle could soon stake out a bigger role in the 2027 World Cup cycle.  

After the season she’s had at the club level, one can only wonder if her skills could prove to be valuable to a new Canadian coach, especially if they’re someone who likes their teams to be more ball-dominant.

Because of that, look for Carle to build on this campaign with the National Team, starting with the two remaining friendlies Canada has this year, which will be against Iceland and South Korea later this month. 

From there, she can use that to vault her into 2025, where Canada will hopefully have that new coach in place, allowing her to impress. Then, that’ll hopefully allow her to have an even better year for both club and country, as she can take the growth of this year for the Spirit and extrapolate it. 

Before then, however, look for her to finish the campaign on a high note in this final, and then go from there. No matter what happens, it’s been a year to remember for Carle, but there’s no better way to cap it off than with a trophy, something she and her teammates will now chase this weekend in Kansas.