Could Dayne St.Clair's surging form push him to start for CanMNT vs. Suriname?
In just under two weeks, the CanMNT will be back in action, as they get set to face Suriname in the Concacaf Nations League quarter-finals.
A two-legged affair, it’ll mark Canada’s return to competitive action for the first time since the Copa América this summer, having spent the last two windows playing friendlies.
Interestingly for Canada, however, it’s worth noting that this window will pose some unique challenges.
On the one hand, some of their best players will arrive in top form, having gotten off to strong starts to their European seasons. At the same time, some others will come in significantly out of form, as some of Canada’s MLS players will have gone as much as five weeks without competitive action by the time they convene for this camp.
For the most part, that doesn’t pose too big of a worry - Canada now has more players playing in European leagues than ever, and has a couple of key players still playing in the MLS Cup playoffs, especially among their group of starters.
When looking at their preferred starting XI from recent matches, however, a few players enter this camp coming off long layoffs.
One is winger Jacob Shaffelburg, who hasn’t played since Nashville’s MLS finale on October 19th. That shouldn’t pose too much of an issue, however - one would expect Shaffelburg to have a solid 60 minutes in his legs, and even if he doesn’t, other options could be ready to step up to help fill in on the wing.
The other position of worry? In goal, where Maxime Crépeau hasn’t featured for the Portland Timbers since October 2nd, as Timbers backup (and Canadian-eligible) James Pantemis was preferred in their last two regular season matches and their lone playoff match. Because of that, it means Crépeau’s last appearance at any level came in Canada’s friendly against Panama on October 15th.
Given that Canada’s #2, Dayne St.Clair, has been in excellent form for Minnesota United, who are still in the playoffs, it’s now opened up an interesting conundrum for Jesse Marsch to ponder.
With St.Clair’s clean sheet in Minnesota’s penalty shootout win over RSL in game #1 of their first-round playoff series this week, he’s now kept five clean sheets in Minnesota’s last six games, making 20 saves (including six in the win vs. RSL) on 3.7 xGOT across that span.
Dayne St. Clair Certified Tough Enough for the Salty Spittoon pic.twitter.com/IKXwp9NjV4
— x - Minnesota United FC (@MNUFC) October 30, 2024
What that means is that he’s helped Minnesota prevent almost 3 goals more than expected over their last six games, which is quite impressive, as he’s been one of the most in-form goalkeepers in MLS (if not the most in-form).
And that’s where Marsch’s big decision lies. Ever since he’s come into the CanMNT fold, he’s kept a close eye on St.Clair, starting him in three games, including a friendly against the Netherlands in his first game in charge, Canada’s Copa América third-place match vs. Uruguay, and a recent friendly vs. Mexico.
Despite some good showings across those three games, however, Crépeau’s remained the main option in goal, and to be fair, he’s done excellently with the opportunity - he was arguably the goalkeeper of the tournament at the Copa América, and has been a perfect fit in Marsch’s system.
Three Canadians made the Player of the Tournament preliminary list, Jacob Shaffelburg, Moïse Bombito and Maxime Crépeau.
— Josh Deming (@tv_jjd) July 16, 2024
Here are my players of Copa America by position. Crépeau was an easy choice 🇨🇦 https://t.co/7SQOvCWhsO pic.twitter.com/yt06YwNLpe
At the same time, there’s no doubt that St.Clair is right behind Crépeau in the pecking order. Marsch even gave an idea of how close in the latest episode of Canada Soccer’s ‘On Guard’ series, in which fans are able to get a behind-the-scenes look at the team.
In a meeting to decide their lineup for their Panama friendly, Marsch spoke about the battle for the #1, seemingly indicating it could be a coin-flip.
“I feel like the ‘Dayne and Max’ decision is as close (as ever), as it always is, (it’s getting) closer and closer,” Marsch said.
Ultimately, he and his staff decided on Crépeau, noting the stylistic fit was better for that specific game, but that discussion was quite interesting to see, and important to remember ahead of the November window.
Why, that is? With it being Canada’s return to competitive action, they’ll want to ensure they put their best foot forward in both games, ensuring they do what they need to in order to advance to the Nations League semi-finals, avoiding a repeat of last year, where they fell in the quarter-finals to Jamaica.
And with St.Clair’s surging form and Crépeau’s lack of minutes, it leaves a tough decision for Marsch to make in goal. Does he stick with Crépeau given his familiarity with the team and his performances for Canada over this year in big games? Or does he give St.Clair the opportunity he’s already felt he deserved as of late?
When peeling back the curtain a bit more, however, there are reasons to suggest that the latter makes sense.
First, when looking at the raw data, St.Clair has certainly had a better year at the club level - not only is his team in the playoffs, but he’s played a big role in helping them get there, conceding 31 goals in 26 MLS appearances, keeping seven clean sheets (and he also had some pretty memorable performances in Leagues Cup action, too).
One of the best goalkeeper performances you'll ever see! 👏😤🧤
— Major League Soccer (@MLS) July 31, 2024
16 SAVES and a CLEAN SHEET for @MNUFC from Dayne St. Clair against Necaxa. #LeaguesCup2024 pic.twitter.com/y6TT6Pda2E
By comparison, Crépeau has conceded 38 goals in just 20 MLS appearances, keeping only one clean sheet for the Timbers.
Then, when looking at the advanced data, there’s more to support St.Clair’s strong form. Despite facing 32.1 post-shot xG in his 26 appearances, his post-shot xG minus goals allowed is 2.1 goals above expected per FBRef. By comparison, Crépeau’s post-shot xG-GA is 3.6 goals below expected despite facing 33.4 post-shot xG, which is on the lower end of MLS goalkeepers.
Undoubtedly, some factors help both keepers that the stats won’t show. For St.Clair, it’s worth noting that Minnesota upgraded their defence this summer, and he’s familiar with this team having been there for several years. With Crépeau, however, he’s in his first year with the Timbers, who didn’t have the greatest defensive record, and they don’t play a defensive style that blends with Crépeau’s game.
In particular, that last point is key. Unlike with Canada and at his last club, LAFC, where Crépeau had the freedom to play as a sweeper and defended quite aggressively, he hasn’t been able to do that as much with Portland, and that’s contributed to his struggles.
Because of that, it’s worth noting that plugging him right back into a Canadian system he’s more familiar with should yield better results, although as he showed in the match against Panama, where he made some rare errors while sweeping, there’s an adjustment to be made.
And that’s why there’s going to be such an interesting discussion when deciding between Crépeau and St.Clair for this Suriname match for Marsch.
Maxime Crepeau comes up HUGE on Kylian Mbappe late and the #CanMNT 🇨🇦 pick up a 0-0 draw vs. France 🇫🇷 pic.twitter.com/RJCMRKc3xQ
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 9, 2024
Both come with risks - should he stick with Crépeau, it’ll open up questions on rustiness if he has a tough game, but should he go with St.Clair, there will be talk of a lack of familiarity and being ready for the role if he should falter.
Ultimately, it feels like St.Clair has earned a look like this, especially when seeing that his latest run for Minnesota has come at a time of the year when they’ve needed it the most. At one point, they were in tough to even make the playoffs, but now they’re on the cusp of advancing to the second round, with St.Clair playing a big role in some of their biggest games.
Now, Canada might need him to keep up that level of play in this tie, so don’t be surprised if he starts that first game down in Suriname.
Certainly, that seems to be what makes the most sense to do.
Should he play well, he can then stay in for leg two, and should he have struggles, Crépeau’s more than ready to step up. On the flipside, if you go with Crépeau in leg one and he struggles, you’d be bringing St.Clair into his biggest game for Canada yet for that second leg, without having had the chance of a leg one to get used to things, showing why the other option also offers more security to Marsch.
Either way, one thing’s for sure - it feels like this goalkeeping battle is closer than ever, and it’ll only continue to heat up as Canada continues to work towards the 2026 World Cup, where it remains to be seen in terms of who ends up leading Canada out of the tunnel for their opener.
